Draft Review - Tm4

Rod Hildebran
3 C. Billups Det
4 Ray Allen Bos
5 T. McGrady Hou
6 T. Parker SA
10 R. Davis LAC
1 K. Garnett Bos
7 T. Prince Det
11 K. Love Min
12 Ben Wallace Cle
2 C. Bosh Tor
8 Z. Ilgauskas Cle
9 N. Hilario Den

The Good: KG, Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups & Tayshaun are all proven winners which will surely make this one of the more intense clubhouses in the league. Team should hang onto the ball with the best of 'em and block some shots.
The Bad: KG over Kobe in the first was not a good choice with the Celtics publically talking about limiting KG's minutes. The Rogue Lemmings will likely want to invest in a Kobe voodoo doll to help ensure there are no regrets at season's end - I'd recommend sweeping the leg and going after the finger just to be sure. Team has some serious age and health concerns as KG, Allen, Billups, T-Mac, Big Ben & Z are all on the decline and Bosh & Nene, particularly the latter, are poster boys for "health risks". The good news is the roster has 5 center eligibles so a big man going down won't have them bringing in Erick Dampier for tryouts at least.
The Ugly: Steals, 3's & Rebounds are all a concern, but perhaps a bigger fear is the team does nothing incredibly well, other than perhaps not turn it over & best case they finish 2nd in MPTO. With no monster strength it may be tough challenge.

Best Pick: Tayshaun Prince (7th) has upside thanks to his new coach who wants him to emerge as an offensive force night in and night out. There's big upside there if it happens, but in the 7th if it doesn't and they get league average Tayshaun it's not a huge blow to the roster. Nene (9th) a huge health risk, but Denver has no one else that can play the pivot which he could accumulate huge tick and he will block shots and rebound while in the lineup.

This team could win if...The old guys don't age and even revert to their previous all-star form. If T-Mac, Ray Allen & Ben Wallace suddenly revert to 5 year ago form, we're talking about a potent lineup presuming the big men stay healthy. The prospect types like Tayshaun, Bosh, Love & Nene still need to make the leap too, but if someone events a "Rejuvenation Machine" this team could be for real...

Draft Review - Tm5

Lawrence Bradley
1 K. Bryant LAL
2 A. Iguodala Phi
4 B. Roy Por
5 J. Crawford NY
8 R. Hamilton Det
7 J. O'Neal Tor
9 L. Deng Chi
10 D. Gooden Chi
11 J. Green OKC
3 Tim Duncan SA
6 B. Miller Sac
12 S. O'Neal Pho

The Good: The draft broke just right for the Bad Boys as Kobe inexplicably fell to them in the 1st, Iggy Pop (or AI2 to his friends) slid back in the 2nd & the ever solid Tim Duncan was there in the 3rd. Plus for all the odd rounds LB was stealing Air Arnold's picks! BBB should rebound, score and block shots plus do relatively well in rips.
The Bad: The big men are old and creaky - the Bad Boys likely need at least 3 of Duncan, Brad Miller, and the O'Neal boys to be healthy for the duration to really fight for the crown. Possible, but is it probable?
The Ugly: The percentages - based on last year this team projects to 13 points in the trio of MPTO, FG% & FT% and that's with Shaq at 62 games & Jermaine at half a season and say what you will about the O'Neal boys, they're both % category killers when they play.

Best Pick: Kobe Bryant (1st) - shouldn't have been there, Brad Miller (6th) a bargain despite the suspension presuming last year wasn't a fluke juvenation & Andre Iguodala (2nd) who has a chance to really emerge with a little more talent around him as a fantasy stud.

This Team Could Win If...the big men are relatively healthy, Brandon Roy (4th) & AI2 continue to emerge into the stars everyone expects and LB finds a way to get at least 15 points out of the 3 percentage categories.

Draft Review - Tm6

Jim Arnold
1 S. Nash Pho
5 A. Miller Phi
7 K. Hinrich Chi
8 M. Ginobili SA
11 E. Watson OKC
2 P. Pierce Bos
6 M. Miller Min
9 J. Salmons Sac
10 G. Hill Pho
3 C. Boozer Uta
4 Pau Gasol LAL
12 J. Posey NO

The good: Assists, 3's FG% & FT% - this team could easily set the all-time JERBL assist record and should run away with the category, if last year's any sign anyway thanks to Steve Nash (1st) & Andre Miller (5th) plus a roster full of guys who all pass some (8 of 12 were above league average in assists last year & only 1, Posey, had <>
The Bad: Not a youthful roster at all as top picks Nash (1st) & Paul Pierce (2nd) are on the wrong side of 30 as is Andre Miller, Grant Hill & James Posey. Plus Kirk Hinrich & Earl Watson are having their minutes chased by prominent rookie points, and worse it appears Hinrich might have already been caught.
The Ugly: MPTO & Blocks - the blocks are nonexistent and the turnovers all too plentiful plus the rebounding is a touch light. If they can't gain at least 15 points in the trio of weak categories, it'll be tough to make up that much ground in their 6 solid categories to win it as in a 12 team league only a third of the time has a team managed to win with fewer than 80 points over the years.

Best Pick: John Salmons (9th) provides some big upside at a bargain. Mike Miller (6th) makes them a contender in treys and has big upside on a bad team & Manu Ginobili (8th) is likely the highest upside of the prominent injured players as he's most likely to return first and play healthy.

This team could win if...Ginobili returns and is Manu on a mission, Nash & Miller don't show their age, Hinrich & Watson hang onto enough minutes to garner stats and Jim works the free agent market enough to raise the MPTO and find some blocks to snare a few more points there...

Draft Review - Tm7

Matt Terry
G 4 M. Redd Mil
G 7 M. Bibby Atl
G 8 G. Arenas Was
G 10 E. Gordon LAC
G 12 R. Fernandez Por
F 1 D. Nowitzki Dal
F 3 C. Anthony Den
F 5 S. Jackson GS
F 6 L. Odom LAL
C 2 Yao Ming Hou
C 11 S. Hawes Sac
FC 9 F. Garcia Sac

The Good: Solid core of talent surrounded by potentially high upside guys. Team should bust the trey and be deadly from the line.
The Bad: Likely needs a lot of guys to come through with health: Yao, Redd, Bibby & Arenas; avoid sulking, Odom, SJax & Melo; or emerge as impact players, EGordon, Rudy Fernandez & Hawes. A few of those will happen, but this may be the highest risk team in the league.
The Ugly: Turnovers, assists & steals - too many of the former & not enough of the latter will be issues throughout the year. Team desperately needs Gilbert Arenas back and in full "Agent Zero" mode and not hobbling around on a bum league, something I'm not sure we'll ever see again despite all those millions the Wizards doled out in desperate hope.

Best Pick: Mike Bibby (7th) could be the big upside assist guy the team needs if he's healthy & settled in with the Hawks. Michael Redd (4th) is high upside value if he regains his former glory (and health) and Dirk Nowitzki (1st) was an excellent choice at 7.

This Team could win if ... Agent Zero gets healthy fast and reverts to '06-7 form when he led a team to the JERBL title, Yao plays 70-some games, Redd reverts to his 2nd round type form of the past and the team is generally healthy and catches some breaks on upside/attitude. The talent is there, but the odds of > half of it coming through this year aren't wonderful...

Draft Review - Tm8

Max Peelman
1 D. Wade Mia
3 Joe Johnson Atl
9 R. Brewer Uta
10 C. Duhon NY
11 M. Conley Mem
2 R. Lewis Orl
5 J. Howard Dal
8 Z. Randolph NY
12 H. Warrick Mem
4 Sam Dalembert Phi
6 E. Okafor Cha
7 T. Chandler NO

The Good: Team strengths are rebounding and FG%. Lots of upside type guys who might click like Chris Duhon (10th) in D'antoni's system and Mike Conley (11th) and if they fail, it's not devastating given they were late picks.
The Bad: Team is heavily dependent on Dwyane Wade's (1st) knees holding up and Wade returning to prominence as a dominant force in the NBA. Also needs to hope that Sam Dalembert (4th) doesn't revert into a pumpkin as that was a relatively high pick to spend on what may be a glorified role player, particularly if Brand steals some rebounds & blocks.
The Ugly: Free Throw Percentage - the Sunshine Band looks to be last with a bullet here as Emeka Okafor (6th) & Tyson Chandler (7th) just bury them in the category. Team may also struggle with steals and assists to some extent, although a healthy DWade will help some.

Best Pick: Rashard Lewis (2nd) - first round talent available on the cheap and he does a little bit of everything. Duhon (10th) & Conley (11th) were also high value picks that could really pay dividends.

This team could win if DWade is healthy & back with a vengeance, the big men are all for real and produce, plus both Duhon & Conley hit and emerge to provide the dimes and rips this team needs...

Draft Review - Tm9

Mike Hildebran
1 J.Richardson Cha 2 J.Smith Atl 6 C.Kaman LAC
5 MoWilliams Cle 3 R.Gay Mem 10 L.Scola Hou
8 J.Nelson Orl 4 D.West NO 12 YiJianlian NJ
9 D.Rose Chi 7 A.Kirilenko Uta
11 C.Quinn Mia

The Good: A youthful group, David West is the old man at 28, of high potential players with good roster balance across the 9 categories. The only huge strength is blocks where they're the favorite, and there are no glaring weaknesses.
The Bad: Team needs Derrick Rose & Carlos Quinn (who?) to produce assists. Rose's debut at least bodes well on both the playing time and passing fronts. String Music also must be decent in all categories as they are only real strong in blocks.
The Ugly: If the centers aren't healthy this team is hitting the free agent market for a replacement pivot which is always perilous. The good news is thanks to shot blocking forwards Josh Smith & AK47 they won't need blocks if forced to go shopping.

Best Picks: Derrick Rose (9th) is suddenly looking like a potential steal as he started over Hinrich last night. Mo Williams (5th) & AK47 (7th) provide good value w/upside if pairing w/Lebron pays dividends and if the Russkie can regain some of his former fantasy magic now that he's running as 6th man.

This Team could win if...the youth all gels this year. Overall there's a lot of young talent on this team and many of these guys should be fantasy studs going forward, but will enough of them produce this year to have String Music singing "We are the Champions" rather than the blues?

Draft Review - Tm10

Brian Case
1 A.Iverson Den 2 D.Granger Ind 3 G.Oden Por
5 J.Terry Dal 4 M.Beasley Mia 8 AlHarrington GS
6 A.Parker Tor 9 J. Moon Tor 12 K.Bogans Orl
7 R.Bell Pho 10 T. Murphy Ind
11 D.Fisher LAL

The Good: DMS shoots the trey like no other, refuses to turn it over and is deadly from the arc. Leading in three categories could get them in contention if they can at least be average in the other 6.
The Bad: Team's success is highly dependent on AI staying healthy again & two primo rookies playing like vets rather than the rookies they are. Greg Oden in the third is a big risk, especially since this team needs his blocks and rebounds to be huge and could use some scoring too - the outlook isn't helped by Oden's scoreless debut last night where he was a no show in the 2nd half either. Michael Beasley in the 4th was a more reasonable selection, but production and points are still needed. One silver lining is this team can weather any TO issues from the rooks and still place first.
The Ugly: FG% - all those treys come at a price and here it's the 45% shooting from the returnees, and rookie Beasley is unlikely to help a ton and it remains to be seen if Oden will shoot enough to substantially help.

Best Pick: Jason Terry was a bargain in the 5th as a quasi-point type, plus Troy Murphy (10th) is a nice upside pick who's center eligible, now playing in an up-tempo offense and not competing for minutes with Jermaine O'Neal. Danny Granger in the 2nd was also solid as he compiled the numbers last year and should benefit from Indy's new system and being the offensive focal point sans Jermaine.

This team could contend if the Rookies are legit & AI is healthy and happy. Oden needs to be a monster in the middle and produce 900 rebounds, 200 blocks and at least 1000 points plus Beasley has to be the scoring monster many think he can be. Failing that, this team may not have enough counting stats (other than 3's) to stay in the running despite the trio of strong categories.

Draft Review - Tm11

Clay White
3 J. Kidd Dal
4 V. Carter NJ
6 D. Harris NJ
8 OJ Mayo Mem
10 B. Udrih Sac
1 E. Brand Phi
2 S. Marion Mia
9 T. Young Phi
11 M. Barnes Pho
5 A. Bogut Mil
7 Al Horford Atl
12 Al Thornton LAC

The Good: Solid combo of grizzled vets (Kidd & VC), struggling stars (Brand & the Matrix) with young up and coming talent (OJ, Thaddeus, Devin & Horford) makes for an interesting blend of potential and don't crash yet.
The Bad:If NJ & Miami struggle will key BBC cogs, Vince Carter & Shawn Marion stay engaged in their season? Vince already quit on one struggling franchise and the Matrix was a pale shade of his former TOT-stuffing self last year in his brief tenure sans Steve Nash. If either of those guys mail it in for part of the year, BBC will be saying "wait 'til next year".
The Ugly: This team is highly dependent on Elton Brand's achilles tendon allowing Elton to return to the top of his game. Trust me, it'll be a surprise if Elton is vintage Elton and unless some young guys like Al Horford really make the leap, BBC can't contend w/o Elton at least at 90%.

Best Pick: Devin Harris (6th) & Al Horford (7th) are both potential break out candidates, but their down side in those rounds is low - barring injury BBC will get good value for those picks & they could emerge as real steals. Also kudos to Matt Barnes (11th) who could benefit greatly from Steve Nash's presence. Shawn Marion (2nd) was also good value as I could have made a case for taking him as high as #5 overall potentially...

This team can contend if Kidd & VC have one more good year in 'em, Brand is back to at least 90% of the Elton Fantasy Hoopsters came to know and love, DWade has Marion breaking out the Matrix of old again and at least one or two of the youngsters emerges as legit talents. A lot needs to come together in all likelihood for this team to make a run, but the talent is there if the stars align an there's no doubt Clay will be scouring the waiver wire to maximize the in season performance when anyone on the roster falters...

Draft Review - Tm12

Tm12 Jim Meeker
1 B. Davis LAC
4 M. Dunleavy Ind
7 Ben Gordon Chi
8 R. Felton Cha
10 R. Alston Hou
3 P. Stojakovic NO
5 R. Jefferson Mil
9 Kny Martin Den
11 R. Gomes Min
2 D. Howard Orl
6 M. Okur Uta
12 T. Outlaw Por

The Good: Strong roster of guys who played a lot & well last year. Team will hit a ton of treys & steal and frankly should be OK in most of the counting categories, particularly if last year can be duplicated.
The Bad: Despite playing a lot last year, the team has lots of guys w/an injury riddled past - contention will depend on the good health of Baron Davis, Pedra Stojakovic, Richard Jefferson & Kenyon Martin who don't have a history of playing 80 games most years.
The Ugly: All those treys come at a cost and for this team it's in FG% (.457 last year) and FT% (.750) which if combined net 6 points for 'em will be a surprise.

Best Pick: Mike Dunleavy in the 4th was likely a steal given his performance last year and his ideal fit for the up-tempo system Indy is installing. Also Raymond Felton in the 8th was an upside bargain as if he does turn the corner it's a steal and his downside is limited then.

To Win it all this team desperately needs health from Baron Davis & Stojakovic plus some good luck in the percentages to get them into the middle of the pack. Dwight Howard learning to shoot a free throw would go a long way towards contention...

JERBL XVII Draft Rosters

JERBL XVII Rosters
Steve Ouellette Dave Karpuszka Bret Hildebran
G 1 C. Paul NO 3 J. Calderon Tor 4 Kev Martin Sac
G 3 D. Williams Uta 7 TJ Ford Ind 5 H. Turkoglu Orl
G 7 C. Maggette LAC 8 L. Barbosa Pho 7 R. Rondo Bos
G 9 R. Foye Min 11 JR Smith Den 10 M. Ellis GS
G 12 R. McCants Min 12 N. Robinson NY 12 L. Williams Phi
F 4 K. Durant OKC 1 L. James Cle 2 C. Butler Was
F 6 D. Lee NY 4 R. Artest Hou 3 A. Jamison Was
F 10 A. Blatche Was 6 L. Aldridge Por 6 G. Wallace Cha
F 11 Ty Thomas Chi 9 C. Villanueva Mil 8 S. Battier Hou
C 2 Al Jefferson Min 2 M. Camby LAC 1 A. Stoudemire Pho
C 5 A. Bynum LAL 5 R. Wallace Det 11 M. Gasol Mem
FC 8 A. Biedrins GS 10 N. Collison OKC 9 Ma. Williams Atl

Rod Hildebran Lawrence Bradley Jim Arnold
G 3 C. Billups Det 1 K. Bryant LAL 1 S. Nash Pho
G 4 Ray Allen Bos 2 A. Iguodala Phi 5 A. Miller Phi
G 5 T. McGrady Hou 4 B. Roy Por 7 K. Hinrich Chi
G 6 T. Parker SA 5 J. Crawford NY 8 M. Ginobili SA
G 10 R. Davis LAC 8 R. Hamilton Det 11 E. Watson OKC
F 1 K. Garnett Bos 7 J. O'Neal Tor 2 P. Pierce Bos
F 7 T. Prince Det 9 L. Deng Chi 6 M. Miller Min
F 11 K. Love Min 10 D. Gooden Chi 9 J. Salmons Sac
F 12 Ben Wallace Cle 11 J. Green OKC 10 G. Hill Pho
C 2 C. Bosh Tor 3 Tim Duncan SA 3 C. Boozer Uta
C 8 Z. Ilgauskas Cle 6 B. Miller Sac 4 Pau Gasol LAL
FC 9 N. Hilario Den 12 S. O'Neal Pho 12 J. Posey NO

Matt Terry Max Peelman Mike Hildebran
G 4 M. Redd Mil 1 D. Wade Mia 1 J. Richardson Cha
G 7 M. Bibby Atl 3 Joe Johnson Atl 5 Mo Williams Cle
G 8 G. Arenas Was 9 R. Brewer Uta 8 J. Nelson Orl
G 10 E. Gordon LAC 10 C. Duhon NY 9 D. Rose Chi
G 12 R. Fernandez Por 11 M. Conley Mem 11 C. Quinn Mia
F 1 D. Nowitzki Dal 2 R. Lewis Orl 2 J. Smith Atl
F 3 C. Anthony Den 5 J. Howard Dal 3 R. Gay Mem
F 5 S. Jackson GS 8 Z. Randolph NY 4 D. West NO
F 6 L. Odom LAL 12 H. Warrick Mem 7 A. Kirilenko Uta
C 2 Yao Ming Hou 4 Sam Dalembert Phi 6 C. Kaman LAC
C 11 S. Hawes Sac 6 E. Okafor Cha 10 L. Scola Hou
FC 9 F. Garcia Sac 7 T. Chandler NO 12 Yi Jianlian NJ

Brian Case Clay White Jim Meeker
G 1 A. Iverson Den 3 J. Kidd Dal 1 B. Davis LAC
G 5 J. Terry Dal 4 V. Carter NJ 4 M. Dunleavy Ind
G 6 A. Parker Tor 6 D. Harris NJ 7 Ben Gordon Chi
G 7 R. Bell Pho 8 OJ Mayo Mem 8 R. Felton Cha
G 11 D. Fisher LAL 10 B. Udrih Sac 10 R. Alston Hou
F 2 D. Granger Ind 1 E. Brand Phi 3 P. Stojakovic NO
F 4 M. Beasley Mia 2 S. Marion Mia 5 R. Jefferson Mil
F 9 J. Moon Tor 9 T. Young Phi 9 Kny Martin Den
F 10 T. Murphy Ind 11 M. Barnes Pho 11 R. Gomes Min
C 3 G. Oden Por 5 A. Bogut Mil 2 D. Howard Orl
C 8 Al Harrington GS 7 Al Horford Atl 6 M. Okur Uta
FC 12 K. Bogans Orl 12 Al Thornton LAC 12 T. Outlaw Por

JERBL XVII Standings using '07-8 Stats

The JERBL XVII draft was Sunday - as an added bonus, the spreadsheet is up and running so we can look at teams using last year's stats to get a feel for teams category strengths etc. The web site is updated with all the numbers - of course folks that drafted rookies have blanks for a roster spot or two and lovers of the injured will be down lots of games. Anyway, here's how the standings stack up based on last year - games played is in parentheses after:

Overall Standings
1. Team Meeker 73.0 JimM 301 (937)
2. Thor's Hammers 73.0 Bret 276 (819)
3. Mookie & the Mailmen 72.0 Karp 281 (879)
4. Air Apparents 71.0 JimA 290 (912)
5. Vogon Poets 67.0 Steve 259 (856)
6. Brad's Bad Boys 66.0 LB 269 (855)
7. String Music 57.0 Mike 250 (791)
8. KG & the Sunshine Band 54.0 Max 253 (872)
9. DrunkenManSpecial 49.0 BC 256 (799)
10. Rogue Lemmings 49.0 Rod 236 (749)
11. B.B.C. 37.0 Clay 217 (740)
12. Haleigh's Comets 34.0 Matt 210 (641)

There's a strong correlation to games played obviously, but it should give some ideas on which teams are strong in each category & where you may need a little work. Also bodes well for a competitive league given the log jam up top and my guess it appears many of the laggards are based on a lack of games played.