JERBL XIX Draft - Round 1

The JERBL XIX Draft has come and gone, but here's a quick review of Round 1...

1. Kevin Durant, OKC  F  Da Bulls - A mild surprise at #1 as the move from MPTO to A/TO hurts him, particularly relative to the next two picks, but...He's the only one of the top 5 who's still significantly improving his game, he's in a set system where he is THE man & he's been healthy so far.  Plus he's really, really good.  Mild surprise he posts the top TOT by year's end but he should be a lock for top 5.
2. LeBron James, Mia  F  Thor's Hammers - He's topped the TOT for the last 2 years and the move to A/TO should only help him (ignore that he's averaging 8.5 TOs a night so far this year - is that what they meant by he could average a triple double?).  Only reason he didn't go #1 was the move to Miami and what playing "sidekick" to DWade & the presence of Bosh might mean for his numbers.  Solid #2 but there's some downside thanks to Miami Thrice relative to recent years.  Will be a shock if he's not top 3 in TOT by year end though.
3. Chris Paul, Nor  G  Rogue Lemmings Rod - I spent most of the weekend talking myself into CP3 at #2 only to see LBJ fall in my lap.  Paul is the obvious 3rd choice - his only question mark is health, but if he plays 80, he'll lead the league in TOT.
4. Kobe Bryant, LAL  G  Team Geddes - After the Big 3 is where the choices got tough & Kobe may be the poster boy for that.  He's now the crafty vet who's a little dinged but finds a way to get it done.  His biggest downside is his team is good enough that he can take time off to get healthy for the playoffs which makes him very risky at 4 IMO.  If healthy, he should be a top 10 performer, but that health feels like a coin flip to me this year...
5. Dirk Nowitzki, Dal  F  Karp's Down and Dirky - The pick Karp should have made LAST year (Amare), but is it a year late?  Particularly with the switch to A/TO which hurts the Big German.  It's the solid safe pick, and since Fantasy drafts are not won in Rounds 1-2, only lost, it's not a bad one.  Dirk does lots of things well and is a safe bet to be a top 10 performer, just not a great bet to be top 3.
6. Stephen Curry, GS  G  Lithuanian Sensation - One of our JERBL Rookies takes the first "First Time #1" pick in Stephen Curry.  It seems daring, but as a rookie he produced well enough to justify the pick this year.  Treys galore along with lots of assists make Curry compelling and with the oddly shifting lineups of Don Nelson theoretically a thing of the past with the new coach, he should actually get better this year, if possible.  Daring pick, but I liked it...
7. Dwyane Wade, Mia  G  Lil Matty's Wee Warriors - Sans LeBron he goes no lower than 4, but with the best player in the NBA suddenly stealing his touches, no one knows for sure what to expect out of DWade.  Not to mention the bum hammy that cost him all but 2 minutes of the pre-season is a little scary.  I'd have gone point here instead, but this pick work out great depending on how things break, as long as none of those things are DWade...
8. Deron Williams, Uta  G  JERBL String Music - Perhaps the best bargain of the 1st round - I had him at #4 on my draft board, ironic since I lambasted him at #11 last year, but the move to A/TO really helps him as it takes a category where he was a huge negative and makes it a huge positive.  Still improving his game and still giving CP3 a little run for his money as to which point should have gone first in that draft...
9. Dwight Howard, Orl  C  Golfers3 Szalay - Our first center to go and definitely the most dynamic big man in the league.  He gives you tons of rebounds, great FG% and the ever rare blocked shots and scores relatively well as well.  The problem is Dwight kills you in FT% and A/TO.  Just hammers you, and of course he busts no treys.  Can you be a first rounder if you're at the bottom of the league in one third of the categories?  IMO no - he just doesn't make up for his negatives with his positives.  But he's the best real world center & what he does do well is compelling and this year he was working out with Hakeem in the off season on his post moves.  Hope springs eternal and that's why someone always took Shaq in Round 1 & now Dwight.  Doesn't mean it was a good pick though...
10. Steve Nash, Pho  G  Vogon Poets - The old vet & best Canuck on the board.  Other than being old enough to collect social security, it's hard to argue with the pick if he's healthy - Nash will produce if he's on the floor.  Although given the age, I'd have thought the Poets would have gone with their hometown point hero who went next, but...
11. Rajon Rondo, Bos  G Brad's Bad Boyz - The best young point left on the board.  He broke through in the playoffs as he single-handedly obliterated the Cavs and was pretty good against everyone else too.  He'll dominate in steals and assists, plus score a little.  The move to A/TO make him a legit first rounder, but he does have holes in his game still in treys & FT%.  Nice value at 11...
12. Danny Granger, Ind  F  Billionaires Boys Club - I viewed him more as a sleeper this year coming off an injury riddled disappointing season where he went 5 in our draft last year, but ESPN had him at #7 making him a value pick according to them.  If he's healthy & can get his groove back, he could easily be a top 5 player, but there's a fair amount of risk here...
13. Pau Gasol, LAL  F/C  NYC DMS - The 2nd center eligible to go - nice value at 13.  Pau can do a little bit of everything on the floor and doesn't have big holes in his game where he kills you in any category.  He's not the exciting glamor pick, despite the accent, but he's solid which is really what you want in the first couple rounds.
14. Jason Kidd, Dal  G Double Rainbows - The second of the "Amazing Aged Point Guard Duo" as year in and year out JKidd still gets it done.  He doesn't play the great D anymore, but he still passes with the best of them & has turned himself into a very good spot-up 3 point shooter.  He'll hurt you in FG%, but the plusses he brings across the rest of the board make up for that 1 shortcoming.  Nice value at 14...

First time #1 Picks:  Stephen Curry, Rajon Rondo & Pau Gasol.
By position:  2 Centers,  4 Forwards, 8 Guards (6 of those being points)

Best Bargain:  Deron Williams at #8
Biggest Reach:  Dwight Howard at #9
Most Likely to Devastate a Franchise: 

1. Steve Nash (can he really stay healthy?)
2. Kobe Bryant (ditto plus the Lakers can roll w/o him)
3. Dwyane Wade (LBJ/Bosh and health)
4. Jason Kidd (Durant was 6 when Kidd was drafted into the league - how can he still be a #1?  It's not human!)
5. Danny Granger (can he continue to grow? & health)

And judging from last year's comments, if I really lambasted your pick there's a coin flip's chance I'm totally wrong, 'course there's the same chance I'm not :-)

Round 4 Review

Round 4: JoshSmith-AlH-Monta-Gilbert-Rashard-Aldridge-Pierce-Nene-Rondo-DWest-Terry

• Loved It!: Paul Pierce - Old guy value pick - he's still the crunch time goto guy in Boston and does a little bit of everything well except turn it over & block shots.  He's the safe pick that has a shot at putting up second round numbers here.  Honorables to Nene & LaMarcus Aldridge who were the top 2 centers on the board, have upside and do big man things well w/o wrecking your percentages.
• Hated It!: Josh Smith - He had been a perennial 2nd/3rd round upside guy for years that never quite blossomed and then caved in totally last year.  There's injury risk, god-awful FT numbers, marginal scoring and rebounding (15/7) and some TOs all for some good block numbers, but even those plummted from 2.8 per to 1.6 last year.  He doesn't turn 24 'til December, there's a chance he'll get his act together and return to be the prospect that made him a 2nd round pick last year, but he seems to be taking the AK47 career track (there are a lot of similarities there) and that's not a good thing - I saw him as reasonable risk in the 6th or so...Rajon Rondo - he was the obvious pick with the "Best Available UK Alum" draft strategy (more on that in Round 11), but given his GM just spent the off-season taking turns shopping and then bashing him, I'm not sure it makes sense that he leaped up 33 draft spots from last year (drafted #75 overall last year, 42 this year) after having an OK season, but nothing stellar (68th best TOT playing 80 games).  I like him a lot & I wasn't considering him yet when he went, which means SteveO certainly could have waited 4 picks to take him in the 5th (although if he didn't want DWest, Terry, Bibby or JRich it doesn't really matter) and the 6th would likely have been proper value, although I doubt he slips past both Mike & Rod twice to make it back...
• This Just Might Work: Monta Ellis & Gilbert Arenas - two peas in a pod - a pair of shoot first (or two guards in a point guard's body if you prefer), injury prone points.  The health of these two guys will likely make or break their respective franchise's seasons (no pressure there) as if they actually are healthy, they're first round talents, but unfortunately the Under/Over on games played for 'em is around 55 combined (35 for Monta, 20 for Gilbert).  I like Gilbert a touch more given he'll definitely play if healthy where Monta's stuck with the moody Don Nelson who was making noise about his backup point being as good as Monta in that system and who knows when Don may decide to prove to the world just how smart he is?  Plus I lived through Monta's comeback last year and his production was underwhelming, 'course he's played more than 13 games in the last 2 years combined, unlike Agent Zero, and should be fully recovered from his scootering activities of last season.

Round 3 Review

Round 3:  VC-GWallace-BLopez-Timmy-Iggy-KevMartin-Devin-Caron-Melo-BenG-DavidLee

• Loved It!:  David Lee - workman like big man who'll rebound like crazy, get some rips & hit a great FG% all in an up tempo system.  Only downside is sacrificing blocks with one of your pivots.  Honorables to Kevin Martin - some injury risk, but he's the MAN in Sac-town and if healthy will produce big numbers on the "someone has to" principle that any NBA team can score 80 a night (Charlotte excepted).
• Hated It!:  Carmelo Anthony - biggest overdraft of the entire draft on my board.  Injury prone, plus his scoring average has dropped for 2 straight years & that's the only thing he's really good at.  Hurts your percentages except for MPTO, doesn't block shots or pass particularly well & is only so-so on the glass for a Forward.  Just can't justify him at pick 31 with what few positives he brings to the table, particularly given the injury risk and the precipitous decline in the one thing he does well, score as his PPG have gone 29-26-23 the last 3 years.  Honorables to Brook Lopez - while not a bad pick, it was an overdraft.  Problem was he wasn't coming back to SteveO in the 4th so if he wanted him, he had to take him, but 25th overall?  I saw him as good value in the 35 to 40 range, but...He's not a team wrecker by any stretch, but he wasn't a value pick either.
• This Just Might Work:  VC & Ben Gordon are both high profile scorers moved to new teams, how exactly they mesh in the new system and what minutes they find will determine if these were good picks.  May be the perfect spot for Vinsanity as if anyone was born to be a Robin like Cape-Rider it would seem to be Vince.  Also Honorables to Tim Duncan who's finally rested after a short playoff stint and rare summer off - this may be the Spurs final shot at a ring so Timmy should be pushing hard.

Round 2 Review

Round 2:  Nash-Kidd-Pau-Roy-Al-Calderon-Bosh-JoeJ-Billups-Murphy-RayRay

• Loved it:  Pau Gasol - total steal at pick 14 as I had him as a first rounder & the top center eligible.  Only downside is he's slightly dinged (missing game 1) and his team is good enough to let him fully rest until he's 100% but as Hubie would say "His upside is TREMENDOUS!!!".  Honorables to Roy, Big Al & Bosh 3 relatively young players who were solid value picks where they went particularly the center eligibility on 2 of 'em.
• Hated it:  Steve Nash - He's 35 which is an age point guards start to plummet, has a bad back and he's not playing for D'Antoni anymore.  Double-dipping on points to end the draft isn't a bad gimmick, but this was likely the wrong year & the wrong player to make the 12 pick in the draft.  If the back holds up, there's hope, but...Honorables - Jose Calderon - he played less last year, didn't play any better & leaped up to be the 17 pick from 26 last year?  I don't see it, but thought he was a solid mid-3rd rounder.  Troy Murphy - 5 years from now he's the guy most likely to be looked back on where we say "what the heck happened that Troy Murphy went in the 2nd round?"  Can he repeat last year's fantasy success?  Or was that a JERBL franchise-wrecking-type-fluke that Hammers management fell for?
• This May Just Work: Jason Kidd - yah he's actually a little older than Nash so the age criticism holds, but he doesn't have the injury history, he's currently healthy & in a nice fit in Dallas playing up tempo and doing what he does best, distribute the ball on the break.  He doesn't have to score so he can pick his spots and shoot a high % taking wide open shots when D's leave him.  I had him slotted around here, despite it being a pick that scared me (although nearly everyone drafted in the 2nd scared me a little) & feel he was the 2nd round point to get.  Ray Allen another old-timer which is the red flag, particularly for a jump shooter that relies on his legs, but he was great last year (1st round quality season), he buries treys by the bunches, is one of the best FT shooters in the league & doesn't really hurt you anywhere other than maybe blocks.  If he's got another year left, he's the steal of the 2nd round, after Pau.

Round 1 Review

Round 1: Lebron-Paul-Wade-Kobe-Granger-Durant-Dwight-Amare-Dirk-KG-Deron

 

Round 1 opened as expected with Lebron going #1 - he was the Top TOT last year and has the most upside that he actually could get better. Pick 2 was the easiest of the draft w/Chris Paul - no debate there. SteveO had the tough choice at #3 - do you take one of the established studs who happen to have a history of injury (Wade/Kobe)? Or bet on a young player fully blossoming and justifying the pick at year's end (Durant/Granger)? Our defending champ opted for the clear #3 guy in the league when healthy in Dwyane Wade, but also the guy who has only played 60 games one year in the last three & is 3 for 6 at playing 70+ career. Not sure I love those odds.

 

Kobe can't be criticized at #4, he's actually been healthy the last 4 years & his only real downside is the Lakers' massive depth could allow him to play less minutes, although Kobe's drive likely won't allow that. Danny Granger to Mike at pick 5 may have been the first "big surprise" of the draft & frankly it wasn't much of a surprise as he was a clear 1st rounder, I think I had him slotted at 6, but back of Durant. The surprise is he's a first time 1st rounder and it's always tougher to pull the trigger on those guys year 1. Kevin Durant was a bargain at 6, factoring in health & upside, I had him at #3 on my board presuming he'll make a mini-leap to get into the mix as a 55+ TOT type of guy.

 

Dwight Howard is the top center off the board at #7 and is much like Shaq in his heyday - he gives you a great base to build off of in FG%, Rebounds and ever-rare Blocks plus he does well in points & steals, at least for a big. But Dwight has a pair of Achilles Heels' in MPTO (11.7 w/a ton of minutes) and is the worst FT shooter in the league (.594 which'll knock 41 points off an average teams FT% - you need 3 of the best FT shooters in the league to get back to average w/Dwight). Hard to say if the downside is worth the upside, which always makes it interesting where Dwight (or Shaq back in the day) would be drafted.

 

In the biggest surprise of R1, to me at least, Amare Stoudemire becomes the 2nd center to go. He's only played full seasons 2 of the last 4 years and the numbers were off last year when he did play (PPG down from 25 to 21 & blocks from 2.1 per to 1.1) although perhaps that was due to Shaq's inspirational leadership? He doesn't have the valleys in his game that Dwight does, but his peaks in rebounds & blocks aren't as big either. He needs to bounce back to '07-8 form to justify the pick & stay healthy which is likely a coin flip.

 

Dirk sliding to 9 was a shocker - he could have gone as high as 4. He's the healthy, safe pick, but lacking C eligibility and still smeared by his "Crazy Train" ex-fiancee' he slid later than perhaps he should have. I'm relatively confident at year's end at least 1 of the top 8 picks will be wishing they'd pulled the trigger on Dirk Diggler. KG at 10 was another surprise as it's betting that KG's knees will hold up and given the big man's NBA mileage, that's not a bet I'd want to make with my fantasy season. I saw him as an OK late 2, or 3rd round value, but we're at the point in the draft where the choices are tough & if KG is healthy, there's no doubt he'll be motivated. Deron Williams to end it was another pick I couldn't get excited about (despite attending the draft in a Utah #8 Jersey). Perhaps I'm underestimating him, but he's never put it together for a full year to justify being a #1 to me. Deron's Steals & Treys are nothing spectacular for a point (both near 1 per), his MPTO is horrendous (11.0) & he's not making it up by blocking shots. Now his assists are great and he averaged a 21-11 last year once recovered from the ankle issues early in the year which only a handful of NBAers ever have so it's not like there's not upside, but enough to be a #1? Only time will tell.

• First Time #1's: Deron Williams, Danny Granger & Kevin Durant
• Injury Risks: KG, DWade & Amare (in order of risk) - take it to the bank that none of these guys play 80 and only 1 hits 70.  Which one?  Well that's the key to 3 teams season.
• Steal:  Dirk Nowitzki to Matt at #9 - he shouldn't have slid that far even at F only.  After all Crazy has left his life.
• Biggest Mistakes:  1) KG - too much risk the knees will fail at some point - plus even if relatively healthy the Celts will rest him for the playoffs so his minutes will be down - just real high risk here that you get 50 games of 70% KG.  2) Amare - combine the injury risk with the sub-par play last year and he's a stretch at #8 - figure on a 25% chance this pick clicks (coinflip he's healthy & coinflip he's back to peak play) which isn't great odds for your #1 not destroying your season.  3) Deron - as a Utah fan, I hope I'm wrong, but we haven't seen the high level of play for a full year to justify him going at #11 in my mind & even if he pulls off the 21-11 over 80 games, I'm not sure 1 steal & trey per night is enough...  [NOTE - these were picks 10, 8 & 11 - i.e. it's much easier to criticize the late picks where the choices are which risky guy to draft rather than which stud]

Draft #s by NBA Team

The enigmatic Golden State Warriors lead JERBL in players drafted w/7. And they say fantasy owners, hate Don Nelson. ATL, DEN, LAL, NY & UTA all clocked in with 6 apiece. A reasonable mix of deep contenders & the uptempo Knicks. MIN had the fewest with only a duo drafted (Al Jefferson & Ryan Gomes). CLE, HOU, MIL, NJ, NO, OKC & SAC all only had a trio taken. Doesn't bode well for the argument that Lebron can't leave as there's talent in Cleveland looking at that particularly given 1 of the 3 taken is a fellow free agent in Shaq.

The List by team:
GS 7
Atl 6
Den 6
LAL 6
NY 6
Uta 6
Bos 5
Cha 5
Chi 5
Dal 5
Mem 5
Mia 5
Phi 5
Pho 5
Det 4
Ind 4
LAC 4
Orl 4
Por 4
SA 4
Tor 4
Was 4
Cle 3
Hou 3
Mil 3
NJ 3
NO 3
OKC 3
Sac 3
Min 2

JERBL XVIII Rosters

JERBL XVIII Rosters

Brian Case Bret Hildebran Steve Ouellette
G 2 Ray Allen Bos 1 C. Paul NO 1 D. Wade Mia
G 3 V. Carter Orl 5 J. Richardson Pho 2 C. Billups Den
G 4 J. Terry Dal 9 M. Chalmers Mia 4 R. Rondo Bos
G 5 M. Bibby Atl 10 C. Duhon NY 8 R. Westbrook OKC
G 11 D. Fisher LAL 12 M. Miller Was 11 DJ Augustin Cha
F 1 L. James Cle 3 G. Wallace Cha 6 A. Randolph GS
F 7 W. Chandler NY 4 D. West NO 7 E. Okafor NO
F 8 G. Hill Pho 6 A. Jamison Was 9 B. Diaw Cha
F 9 T. Young Phi 8 J. Green OKC 12 B. Rush Ind
C 6 R. Wallace Bos 2 T. Murphy Ind 3 B. Lopez NJ
C 10 M. Gasol Mem 7 Al Horford Atl 5 E. Brand Phi
FC 12 R. Turiaf GS 11 S. Battier Hou 10 G. Oden Por


Jim Arnold Mike Hildebran Lawrence Bradley
G 1 K. Bryant LAL 3 A. Iguodala Phi 2 J. Calderon Tor
G 2 Joe Johnson Atl 6 M. Ginobili SA 3 Kev Martin Sac
G 5 D. Rose Chi 7 OJ Mayo Mem 6 Mo Williams Cle
G 9 TJ Ford Ind 8 JR Smith Den 9 R. Felton Cha
G 11 A. Iverson Mem 9 A. Miller Por 12 N. Robinson NY
F 3 Tim Duncan SA 1 D. Granger Ind 1 K. Durant OKC
F 6 S. Jackson GS 4 P. Pierce Bos 7 Ron Artest LAL
F 7 M. Redd Mil 10 M. Beasley Mia 8 Ty Thomas Chi
F 10 P. Millsap Uta 11 A. Kirilenko Uta 10 L. Odom LAL
C 4 N. Hilario Den 2 C. Bosh Tor 4 L. Aldridge Por
C 8 Z. Randolph Mem 5 A. Bargnani Tor 5 M. Okur Uta
FC 12 L. Deng Chi 12 D. Gallinari NY 11 S. Dalembert Phi


Max Peelman Dave Karpuszka Matt Terry
G 3 D. Harris NJ 2 B. Roy Por 4 M. Ellis GS
G 5 T. Parker SA 4 G. Arenas Was 6 J. Nelson Orl
G 6 E. Gordon LAC 6 H. Turkoglu Tor 9 Ty Evans Sac
G 9 L. Williams Phi 9 Jo. Howard Dal 10 J. Crawford Atl
G 11 R. Brewer Uta 10 R. Stuckey Det 11 S. Curry GS
F 4 R. Lewis Orl 3 C. Butler Was 1 D. Nowitzki Dal
F 8 L. Scola Hou 5 S. Marion Dal 3 C. Anthony Den
F 10 J. Noah Chi 7 C. Villanueva Det 8 R. Jefferson SA
F 12 Kny Martin Den 8 B. Griffin LAC 12 Al Thornton LAC
C 1 Dw. Howard Orl 1 A. Stoudemire Pho 2 Pau Gasol LAL
C 2 Al Jefferson Min 11 C. Andersen Den 5 M. Camby LAC
FC 7 A. Biedrins GS 12 S. Hawes Sac 7 A. Bynum LAL


Rod Hildebran Clay White
G 2 J. Kidd Dal 1 D. Williams Uta
G 3 Ben Gordon Det 2 S. Nash Pho
G 5 J. Salmons Chi 5 B. Davis GS
G 11 J. Meeks Mil 8 L. Barbosa Pho
G 12 R. Murray Cha 11 C. Lee NJ
F 1 K. Garnett Bos 4 Jo. Smith Atl
F 6 T. Prince Det 6 C. Boozer Uta
F 7 R. Gay Mem 10 T. Ariza Hou
F 8 R. Gomes Min 12 M. Williams Atl
C 4 Al Harrington NY 3 D. Lee NY
C 9 S. O'Neal Cle 7 A. Bogut Mil
FC 10 U. Haslem Mia 9 J. O'Neal Mia