Round 1 Review

Round 1: Lebron-Paul-Wade-Kobe-Granger-Durant-Dwight-Amare-Dirk-KG-Deron

 

Round 1 opened as expected with Lebron going #1 - he was the Top TOT last year and has the most upside that he actually could get better. Pick 2 was the easiest of the draft w/Chris Paul - no debate there. SteveO had the tough choice at #3 - do you take one of the established studs who happen to have a history of injury (Wade/Kobe)? Or bet on a young player fully blossoming and justifying the pick at year's end (Durant/Granger)? Our defending champ opted for the clear #3 guy in the league when healthy in Dwyane Wade, but also the guy who has only played 60 games one year in the last three & is 3 for 6 at playing 70+ career. Not sure I love those odds.

 

Kobe can't be criticized at #4, he's actually been healthy the last 4 years & his only real downside is the Lakers' massive depth could allow him to play less minutes, although Kobe's drive likely won't allow that. Danny Granger to Mike at pick 5 may have been the first "big surprise" of the draft & frankly it wasn't much of a surprise as he was a clear 1st rounder, I think I had him slotted at 6, but back of Durant. The surprise is he's a first time 1st rounder and it's always tougher to pull the trigger on those guys year 1. Kevin Durant was a bargain at 6, factoring in health & upside, I had him at #3 on my board presuming he'll make a mini-leap to get into the mix as a 55+ TOT type of guy.

 

Dwight Howard is the top center off the board at #7 and is much like Shaq in his heyday - he gives you a great base to build off of in FG%, Rebounds and ever-rare Blocks plus he does well in points & steals, at least for a big. But Dwight has a pair of Achilles Heels' in MPTO (11.7 w/a ton of minutes) and is the worst FT shooter in the league (.594 which'll knock 41 points off an average teams FT% - you need 3 of the best FT shooters in the league to get back to average w/Dwight). Hard to say if the downside is worth the upside, which always makes it interesting where Dwight (or Shaq back in the day) would be drafted.

 

In the biggest surprise of R1, to me at least, Amare Stoudemire becomes the 2nd center to go. He's only played full seasons 2 of the last 4 years and the numbers were off last year when he did play (PPG down from 25 to 21 & blocks from 2.1 per to 1.1) although perhaps that was due to Shaq's inspirational leadership? He doesn't have the valleys in his game that Dwight does, but his peaks in rebounds & blocks aren't as big either. He needs to bounce back to '07-8 form to justify the pick & stay healthy which is likely a coin flip.

 

Dirk sliding to 9 was a shocker - he could have gone as high as 4. He's the healthy, safe pick, but lacking C eligibility and still smeared by his "Crazy Train" ex-fiancee' he slid later than perhaps he should have. I'm relatively confident at year's end at least 1 of the top 8 picks will be wishing they'd pulled the trigger on Dirk Diggler. KG at 10 was another surprise as it's betting that KG's knees will hold up and given the big man's NBA mileage, that's not a bet I'd want to make with my fantasy season. I saw him as an OK late 2, or 3rd round value, but we're at the point in the draft where the choices are tough & if KG is healthy, there's no doubt he'll be motivated. Deron Williams to end it was another pick I couldn't get excited about (despite attending the draft in a Utah #8 Jersey). Perhaps I'm underestimating him, but he's never put it together for a full year to justify being a #1 to me. Deron's Steals & Treys are nothing spectacular for a point (both near 1 per), his MPTO is horrendous (11.0) & he's not making it up by blocking shots. Now his assists are great and he averaged a 21-11 last year once recovered from the ankle issues early in the year which only a handful of NBAers ever have so it's not like there's not upside, but enough to be a #1? Only time will tell.

• First Time #1's: Deron Williams, Danny Granger & Kevin Durant
• Injury Risks: KG, DWade & Amare (in order of risk) - take it to the bank that none of these guys play 80 and only 1 hits 70.  Which one?  Well that's the key to 3 teams season.
• Steal:  Dirk Nowitzki to Matt at #9 - he shouldn't have slid that far even at F only.  After all Crazy has left his life.
• Biggest Mistakes:  1) KG - too much risk the knees will fail at some point - plus even if relatively healthy the Celts will rest him for the playoffs so his minutes will be down - just real high risk here that you get 50 games of 70% KG.  2) Amare - combine the injury risk with the sub-par play last year and he's a stretch at #8 - figure on a 25% chance this pick clicks (coinflip he's healthy & coinflip he's back to peak play) which isn't great odds for your #1 not destroying your season.  3) Deron - as a Utah fan, I hope I'm wrong, but we haven't seen the high level of play for a full year to justify him going at #11 in my mind & even if he pulls off the 21-11 over 80 games, I'm not sure 1 steal & trey per night is enough...  [NOTE - these were picks 10, 8 & 11 - i.e. it's much easier to criticize the late picks where the choices are which risky guy to draft rather than which stud]