Round 4 Review

Round 4: JoshSmith-AlH-Monta-Gilbert-Rashard-Aldridge-Pierce-Nene-Rondo-DWest-Terry

• Loved It!: Paul Pierce - Old guy value pick - he's still the crunch time goto guy in Boston and does a little bit of everything well except turn it over & block shots.  He's the safe pick that has a shot at putting up second round numbers here.  Honorables to Nene & LaMarcus Aldridge who were the top 2 centers on the board, have upside and do big man things well w/o wrecking your percentages.
• Hated It!: Josh Smith - He had been a perennial 2nd/3rd round upside guy for years that never quite blossomed and then caved in totally last year.  There's injury risk, god-awful FT numbers, marginal scoring and rebounding (15/7) and some TOs all for some good block numbers, but even those plummted from 2.8 per to 1.6 last year.  He doesn't turn 24 'til December, there's a chance he'll get his act together and return to be the prospect that made him a 2nd round pick last year, but he seems to be taking the AK47 career track (there are a lot of similarities there) and that's not a good thing - I saw him as reasonable risk in the 6th or so...Rajon Rondo - he was the obvious pick with the "Best Available UK Alum" draft strategy (more on that in Round 11), but given his GM just spent the off-season taking turns shopping and then bashing him, I'm not sure it makes sense that he leaped up 33 draft spots from last year (drafted #75 overall last year, 42 this year) after having an OK season, but nothing stellar (68th best TOT playing 80 games).  I like him a lot & I wasn't considering him yet when he went, which means SteveO certainly could have waited 4 picks to take him in the 5th (although if he didn't want DWest, Terry, Bibby or JRich it doesn't really matter) and the 6th would likely have been proper value, although I doubt he slips past both Mike & Rod twice to make it back...
• This Just Might Work: Monta Ellis & Gilbert Arenas - two peas in a pod - a pair of shoot first (or two guards in a point guard's body if you prefer), injury prone points.  The health of these two guys will likely make or break their respective franchise's seasons (no pressure there) as if they actually are healthy, they're first round talents, but unfortunately the Under/Over on games played for 'em is around 55 combined (35 for Monta, 20 for Gilbert).  I like Gilbert a touch more given he'll definitely play if healthy where Monta's stuck with the moody Don Nelson who was making noise about his backup point being as good as Monta in that system and who knows when Don may decide to prove to the world just how smart he is?  Plus I lived through Monta's comeback last year and his production was underwhelming, 'course he's played more than 13 games in the last 2 years combined, unlike Agent Zero, and should be fully recovered from his scootering activities of last season.